Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Iowa Results

Final Popular Vote Results
Romney = 30,015 (24.55%)
Santorum = 30,007 (24.54%)
Paul = 26,219 (21.4%)
Gingrich = 16,251 (13.3%)
Perry = 12,604 (10.3%)
Bachmann = 6,073 (5.0%)
Huntsman = 745 (0.6%)
Other = 341 (0.3%)
(100% of precincts reporting)

Delegates at stake
* 13 At Large (AL) delegates
* 12 Congressional District (CD) delegates [4 districts x 3 delegates/district]
* 3 RNC Automatic Delegates

Delegate Allocation Estimated Methodology

There is no formal system applied in the precinct caucuses to relate the presidential preference of the caucus participants to the choice of the precinct's delegates to the Republican Convention of the county in which the precinct is located. The participants at each precinct caucus alone determine if presidential preference is to be a factor in such choice and, if so, how it is to be applied.  (CD delegates will be formally allocated at the Congressional presidential caucus on 4/21/2012. AL delegates will be formally allocated at the state convention on 6/6/2012.) 

Given that there are no rules, all I could do was perform a VERY rough estimate. I allocated the the 13 AL delegates in proportion to the popular vote.  I allocated the 12 CD delegates to the winners of each Congressional district - 6 (2 districts) to Romney and 6 (2 districts) to Santorum (but did not allocate the RNC delegates to the overall state winner).  I have seen some really stupid allocations in the media, such as the SF Gate claiming that Paul "was shut out of" delegates because he didn't win any of the congressional districts.  I've also seen some reasonable approaches, such as The Green Papers allocating all 25 delegates proportionally but subject to a 10% threshold that many states use, but my approach seems at least as good as anything I've found up to now in the press.

SOFT Delegate Allocation Results
Bachmann = 1
Gingrich = 2
Huntsman = 0
Paul = 3
Perry = 1
Romney = 9
Santorum = 9
Unpledged = 3
Posted by ALD at 11:59 PM
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4 comments:

tMmM! said...

This post was early.

Actual results out this morning are reporting Romney as the winner ... by all of EIGHT votes, 30,015 to 30,007. Ron Paul was a not terribly distant third with 26,219. That's interesting, I had thought Paul would win because his ground campaign is so strong (a very devoted gang of followers); I guess the damage of coming much more into the spotlight was enough - when combined with Santorum's surge.

I have to admit, at a grand total of 8 votes, I have to consider that result questionable, and certainly no clear indicator of anything. Indeed, if all three top vote getters (25%, 25% and 22% of the vote, respective) aren't within the margin of error, something is wrong. But then I think we were well on our way to considering that the case in Iowa anyway.

Not sure what this solves, other than to maybe begin the weeding process. With his distant fifth place, I can't see Perry remaining in; frankly, Bachmann shouldn't, either, but I think she's too stubborn and has too much ego in the game to do so now. Huntsman will stick until after South Carolina, when - if things don't improve a great deal - he should go away as well.

South Carolina followed by Florida are the primaries that I think will do much to really clear the picture up.

January 4, 2012 8:40 AM
ALD said...

Post updated with final counts.

Here's my take:

1) Bachmann is done, whether she actually bows out or not. She was already not polling great in NH; this will only further deteriorate her suppor there.

2) This is really bad for Perry and Gingrich. They have the machinery and funds to keep going for a while, but they're almost certainly done too.

3) Huntsman will do poorly in NH and drop out soon thereafter when his "bypass Iowa" strategy proves to be a failure, same as happened with Giuliani in 2008 with his "Florida first" strategy.

4) Santorum will not do nearly as well in NH, which is very different from Iowa. However, a third place finish is likely, which will leave him in the race. However, I don't think he has the organization in place to make it to Super Tuesday.

5) Paul will do well in NH, probably 2nd, but I also think that he lacks the organization and funds to make it in the long run.

Conclusion: Despite the margin of only 8 votes, I think Romney was the winner. My guess is he will emerge as the nominee, and sooner rather than later. We may be spared a really bruising primary season and be able to turn our attention to Obama relatively early.

January 4, 2012 10:03 AM
tMmM! said...

Agree re: Bachmann and Perry, both of whom may already be on the way out. I can't disagree re: Huntsman, either.

Gingrich ... I don't see that Iowa (nor New Hampshire to come) with hurt him that badly - I find that much more a product of groupthink on the part of commentators and the like - because I see those states as outside his sweet zone, really. They were essentially already spoken for (Santorum is a bit of a surprise in Iowa, tho), although two debates in the narrow time before New Hampshire could give Newt some benefit. Mostly, I believe a combination of South Carolina and Florida will tell the tale with him. But although I like what he's got to say when we get away from the idiotic portions of the campaign, I can't help but feel there's a miasma surrounding him due mainly to the failures of his campaign team to achieve stability and transaction in the nation at large. In the end, that'll doom him more than any single thing.

Santorum, I think you're right. Iowa is a nice boost, but I don't think his campaign has the depth necessary to get beyond the next couple contests.

Ron Paul ... fated to be the bridesmaid, but he'll stick with it and provide a sour taste to the experience the longer it goes. He has too good and dedicated of a ground game/team to just go away, like he perhaps should.

The only guy I really think could challenge Romney is Gingrich ... but he's gotta regain traction by succeeding in returning this campaign to one of ideas and policy. Playing the bittervet following Iowa and failing to make the VA ballot will not help him. Again, SC and FL will tell the tale.

January 4, 2012 11:11 AM
tMmM! said...

Registering the first casualty from Iowa - Bachmann has "suspended" her campaign.

http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/04/9946872-after-dismal-iowa-showing-bachmann-suspends-campaign

January 4, 2012 11:42 AM

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