One Conservative Voice

Gingrich up in FL

2012-01-23T12:54:00.000-05:00

Less than two weeks ago, Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.

Winning Florida (which like SC is winner-take-all) could give Gingrich a commanding early lead.

More Islamist Terrorism

2012-01-23T10:08:00.003-05:00

Islamist sect Boko Haram kills at least 178 in Kano, Nigeria. (Source: FoxNews)

So, is this murderous violence also (if liberal and libertarian anti-"interventionist" logic is to be believed) because the people of Nigeria are interfering in the affairs of Muslims who just want to be left alone?

Nice

2012-01-22T15:17:00.001-05:00

Do you remember GWB's version of this book? Me neither. Must have something to do with only liberals being disgusting enough to propagandize elementary school kids.

South Carolina Results

2012-01-21T20:00:00.003-05:00

Preliminary Popular Vote Results
Newt Gingrich 210,611 (40.4%)
Mitt Romney 140,961 (27.0%)
Rick Santorum 90,637 (17.4%)
Ron Paul 69,947 (13.4%)
Other 9,072 (1.7%)
(89% of precincts reporting)

Tentative Delegate Allocation Results
South Carolina has 25 at large delegates (because they were penalized half their delegates for having an early primary under RNC rule 16). Delegates are allocated on a winner-take-all basis but are unbound if the candidate does not receive 30% of the vote.
Gingrich = 25

Late, yet still timely...

2012-01-20T11:25:00.002-05:00

Europe is facing an ‘existential crisis’ that could end in violent revolution and war, the French foreign minister warned last night. In the bleakest assessment yet of the euro crisis, Alain Juppe, a former French prime minister, said the spiralling debt crisis could trigger ‘the explosion of the European Union itself’.

I missed this when it first came out on Dec 1st, but there are a lot of smart European power-brokers (not talking kooks or fringers) who think war is a distinct possibility. For example, the PM of Poland made very similar comments back in September.

Perry Out

2012-01-19T13:15:00.000-05:00

Not sure why he didn't wait until after SC at this point, but I don't think he was going to place anyway. I've removed his unpledged Iowa delegate from my counts.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/01/19/perry-to-drop-out-gop-presidential-race/

Looks Like One More is Dropping ...

2012-01-19T10:50:00.006-05:00

And Then There Were Four: Rick Perry to Drop Out

(per Politico, via Townhall)

And then there were five...

2012-01-16T11:52:00.000-05:00

Huntsman Ends Bid, Backs Romney

Enough about Bain Capital

2012-01-15T12:39:00.000-05:00

I'm really disappointed in my fellow Republicans harping on Romney's record at Bain Capital. The analysis of the now infamous "77 cases", and the attack ads based on it, is badly flawed.

The WSJ reports that 17 either filed for bankruptcy reorganization or closed their doors by the end of the eighth year after Bain first invested. Many of these bankruptcies were long after Bain had left, and in several others Bain was only a minor investor. In fact, Bain was in charge at just 5 of the bankruptcies. A failure rate of 6.5% is well ahead of the industry average for private equity firms. An additional 6 firms ran into so much trouble that most or all of the money Bain invested was lost. I guess that's evidence that Bain wasn't looking to raid the companies.

But all of this analysis misses the main point -- Bain's strategy was to invest in failing companies. The question isn't how many went bust; the question is how many would have gone bust more quickly and more completely without an injection of cash from Bain. There's no question that Bain saved thousands of jobs. The alternative to a slimmed down firm with fewer employees is not a bigger firm with more employees, it's a bankrupt firm with no employees.

And of course Bain recapitalized Staples, Domino's and Sports Authority, all of which have been complete successes resulting in over 100,000 extra jobs. Other success stories are Steel Dynamics, Experian and VisionCare. So Gingrich, and Perry (and Obama and Axelrod) need to STFU.

Something to think about

2012-01-15T09:06:00.000-05:00

As we start working on our taxes

(and this is based on AGI, so it doesn't include transfer payments to that bottom 50%)

Laffer has it right, as usual

2012-01-11T22:00:00.001-05:00

If the "Buffett Rule" were applied as President Obama proposes, then Mr. Buffett's federal tax bill would have been $14.4 million, rather than the $6.9 million he actually paid. As a fraction of his true income, his effective tax rate would only have risen from 6/100ths of 1% to 12/100ths of 1%.

[...]

Mr. Buffett also stated in his op-ed that in his 60 years working with investors he has yet to see anyone "shy away from a sensible investment . . . even when capital gains rates were 39.9% in 1976-77." Mr. Buffett's choice of 1976-77 is prescient because the economy in 1977 was a basket case. The official Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment rate was 7.1%, consumer price inflation was 6.7%, and the S&P 500 dropped a whopping 17% after adjusting for inflation. Indeed, 1977 is a good illustration of the type of economy Mr. Buffett's policies would deliver.

[...]

Meanwhile, the top 1% of earners saw their tax payments climb to 3.3% of GDP in 2007 from 1.5% of GDP in 1978, while the bottom 95% saw their tax payments drop to 3.2% of GDP in 2007 from 5.4% of GDP in 1978. Why would Mr. Buffett want to reverse these numbers? Of course, cynics and die-hard progressives might object to the above evidence on the grounds that it was driven by an explosion of income gains. But that's largely the point.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203462304577138961587258988.html

I've provided the highlights, but as with everything Art Laffer writes, it's best to go read the entire column for yourself.

New Hampshire Results

2012-01-10T23:59:00.004-05:00

Preliminary Popular Vote Results
Romney = 96,488 (39.4%)
Paul = 56,105 (23.0%)
Huntsman = 41,370 (16.9%)
Gingrich = 23,158 (9.5%)
Santorum = 22,976 (9.4%)
Perry = 1,735 (0.7%)
Other = 2,821 (1.2%)
(293 out of 301 precincts reporting)

Tentative Delegate Allocation Results
New Hampshire has 12 at large delegates (because they were penalized half their delegates for having an early primary under RNC rule 16). Delegates are allocated proportionally to popular vote, subject to a 10% threshold.*
Romney = 7
Paul = 3
Huntsman = 2
Gingrich and Santorum missed the 10% cutoff.
(*) The NYT website makes reference to the 3 RNC delegates; not surprisingly the NYT is wrong. When RNC rule 16 is invoked to remove delegates, the ones removed are the RNC delegates and the Congressional District delegates. All remaining delegates are at large.

Observations
-- You may recall that NH has an open primary. Huntsman won the Democratic vote. Draw your own conclusion.
-- Paul came in second ... in the D primary as well as the R primary.
-- Paul won the independent vote and the under 30 vote (neither is a surprise). Romney won males and females, conservatives and moderates, Republicans, and the over 30 vote.
-- Perry is done. He barely beat Michelle Bachmann and Buddy Roemer. I predict a press conference in the morning.
-- In an unreported story, Obama got as little as 76% in some counties in the D primary. So much for energizing the base.

Daley Out, Lew In

2012-01-10T18:59:00.001-05:00

Obama's chief of staff William Daley quit yesterday. His tenure was shorter than Kim Kardashian's marriage. OMB Director Jack Lew will take over.

Proof that Krugman is lying scum

2012-01-07T15:36:00.001-05:00

In a recent column Paul Krugman argued that since Wisconsin has unionized schools (true), Texas has non-unionized schools (true), and educational achievement scores are higher in Wisconsin than in Texas (true), it must be that teacher unions are good for schools.

The conclusion is false even though each supporting fact is true. White Anglos in Texas do better than white Anglos in Wisconsin. Hispanics in Texas do better than Hispanics in Wisconsin. Blacks in Texas do better than blacks in Wisconsin.

How can this be? Simple. Whites on average do better than Hispanics and blacks, and Texas has a much higher proportion of blacks and Hispanics.

This is the well-known Simpson paradox, which is discussed in elementary statistics textbooks. One could argue that Krugman is just an idiot of monumental proportions, but nobody gets a PhD in economics or wins the Nobel Prize in economics without understanding Simpson's paradox.

The conclusion is that Krugman understood all this and decided to use it in his column anyway because he's the lying partisan scum we all suspected him to be.

Obama Cuts Budget

2012-01-05T11:37:00.000-05:00

Where? Where else? The military. I am so sick of uber-liberals who can't stomach anything less than 10% annual growth in entitlement spending deciding that they are fiscal conservatives when it comes to the military, which after all is one of the few things we spend money on that is actually permitted by the constitution. Why isn't military spending Keynesian stimulus?

Bachmann Suspends Campaign

2012-01-04T12:56:00.000-05:00

Registering the first casualty from Iowa - Bachmann has "suspended" her campaign.

http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/04/9946872-after-dismal-iowa-showing-bachmann-suspends-campaign

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/bachmann-ends-presidential-campaign/2012/01/04/id/423001

(I'm throwing her delegate back in the unpledged column in my count.)

Iowa Results

2012-01-03T23:59:00.008-05:00

Final Popular Vote Results
Romney = 30,015 (24.55%)
Santorum = 30,007 (24.54%)
Paul = 26,219 (21.4%)
Gingrich = 16,251 (13.3%)
Perry = 12,604 (10.3%)
Bachmann = 6,073 (5.0%)
Huntsman = 745 (0.6%)
Other = 341 (0.3%)
(100% of precincts reporting)

Delegates at stake
* 13 At Large (AL) delegates
* 12 Congressional District (CD) delegates [4 districts x 3 delegates/district]
* 3 RNC Automatic Delegates

Delegate Allocation Estimated Methodology

There is no formal system applied in the precinct caucuses to relate the presidential preference of the caucus participants to the choice of the precinct's delegates to the Republican Convention of the county in which the precinct is located. The participants at each precinct caucus alone determine if presidential preference is to be a factor in such choice and, if so, how it is to be applied. (CD delegates will be formally allocated at the Congressional presidential caucus on 4/21/2012. AL delegates will be formally allocated at the state convention on 6/6/2012.)

Given that there are no rules, all I could do was perform a VERY rough estimate. I allocated the the 13 AL delegates in proportion to the popular vote. I allocated the 12 CD delegates to the winners of each Congressional district - 6 (2 districts) to Romney and 6 (2 districts) to Santorum (but did not allocate the RNC delegates to the overall state winner). I have seen some really stupid allocations in the media, such as the SF Gate claiming that Paul "was shut out of" delegates because he didn't win any of the congressional districts. I've also seen some reasonable approaches, such as The Green Papers allocating all 25 delegates proportionally but subject to a 10% threshold that many states use, but my approach seems at least as good as anything I've found up to now in the press.

SOFT Delegate Allocation Results
Bachmann = 1
Gingrich = 2
Huntsman = 0
Paul = 3
Perry = 1
Romney = 9
Santorum = 9
Unpledged = 3

Who cares?

2012-01-03T09:45:00.002-05:00

The Iowa caucus is today. I don't particularly care. Iowa doesn't have the best record of picking the eventual nominee, on either the R side* or the D side, but that's not what I'm talking about. What troubles me is that I don't understand why the media turns this into a feeding frenzy when the delegates aren't even pledged. Let me be perfectly clear ... the caucus results are completely ~~non-binding~~ meaningless; the delegates are free to vote for whomever they want.

* In 2008, McCain (4th) didn't win a single county. Huckabee (1st) won 74 counties, Romney (2nd) won 24 counties, and Paul (5th) won 1 county. Fred Thomson came in 3rd.

On Intellectual Complainers

2012-01-02T23:16:00.001-05:00

I ran across a great explanation of the Occupy crowd...

As society gets richer, education expands and the number of "intellectuals" begins to grow. These are people who have gone through college and believe that they are really the smartest people, but they go out into the market and find that they can't get a job and they don't actually have any skills. They get discontented with their lives. They begin to feel like life is unfair to them. After all, they're the educated ones; they should have good jobs. They begin to get resentfual and they say capitalism must be at fault. Under a just system, smart people like them would be in control and they could run things.

You might think that this isn't particularly insightful, that you've thought these exact same thoughts yourself. Well, you'd be right except for one little fact. The punchline is in the comments.

100 years ago...

2012-01-01T01:12:00.000-05:00

The election of 1912 was a choice between:

Woodrow Wilson, the first liberal Democrat president
William Taft, the last liberal Republican president
Theodore Roosevelt, who ran as a third-party candidate because Taft wasn't liberal enough

And 1913, probably the single worst year in the history of freedom in this country, gave us:

The federal income tax
The direct election of senators, destroying our federalist balance
The Federal Reserve Act

Let's make sure we do a better job this year.

Romney Beats Obama

2011-12-29T09:48:00.000-05:00

Mitt Romney has now jumped to his biggest lead ever over President Obama in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup. It’s also the biggest lead a named Republican candidate has held over the incumbent in Rasmussen Reports surveying to date. The latest national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely Voters favor the former Massachusetts governor, while 39% prefer the president. Ten percent like some other candidate in the race, and six percent are undecided.

GOP Delegate Selection Schedule

2011-12-28T16:27:00.005-05:00

January 3, 2012
Iowa (caucus) - 28 delegates

January 10, 2012
New Hampshire (primary) - 12 delegates

January 21, 2012
South Carolina (primary) - 25 delegates

January 31, 2012
Florida (primary) - 50 delegates

February 4, 2012
Nevada (caucus) - 28 delegates

February 4–11, 2012
Maine (caucus) - 24 delegates

February 7, 2012
Colorado (caucus) - 36 delegates
Minnesota (caucus) - 40 delegates

February 25, 2012
Northern Marianas (caucus) - 9 delegates

February 28, 2012
Arizona (primary) - 29 delegates
Michigan (primary) - 30 delegates

March 3, 2012
Washington (caucus) - 43 delegates

March 6, 2012 (Super Tuesday)
Alaska (caucus) - 27 delegates
Georgia (primary) - 76 delegates
Idaho (caucus) - 32 delegates
Massachusetts (primary) - 41 delegates
North Dakota (caucus) - 28 delegates
Ohio (primary) - 66 delegates
Oklahoma (primary) - 43 delegates
Tennessee (primary) - 58 delegates
Vermont (primary) - 17 delegates
Virginia (primary) - 49 delegates

March 6-10, 2012
Wyoming (caucus) - 29 delegates

March 10, 2012
Kansas (caucus) - 40 delegates
U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus) - 9 delegates
Guam (caucus) - 9 delegates

March 13, 2012
Alabama (primary) - 50 delegates
Hawaii (caucus) - 20 delegates
Mississippi (primary) - 40 delegates
American Samoa (caucus) - 9 delegates

March 17, 2012
Missouri (caucus) - 52 delegates

March 18, 2012
Puerto Rico (primary) - 23 delegates

March 20, 2012
Illinois (primary) - 69 delegates

March 24, 2012
Louisiana (primary) - 46 delegates

April 3, 2012
District of Columbia (primary) - 19 delegates
Maryland (primary) - 37 delegates
Texas (primary) - 155 delegates
Wisconsin (primary) - 42 delegates

April 24, 2012
Connecticut (primary) - 28 delegates
Delaware (primary) - 17 delegates
New York (primary) - 95 delegates
Pennsylvania (primary) - 72 delegates
Rhode Island (primary) - 19 delegates

May 8, 2012
Indiana (primary) - 46 delegates
North Carolina (primary) - 55 delegates
West Virginia (primary) - 31 delegates

May 15, 2012
Nebraska (primary) - 35 delegates
Oregon (primary) - 28 delegates

May 22, 2012
Arkansas (primary) - 36 delegates
Kentucky (primary) - 45 delegates

June 5, 2012
California (primary) - 172 delegates
Montana (primary) - 26 delegates
New Jersey (primary) - 50 delegates
New Mexico (primary) - 23 delegates
South Dakota (primary) - 28 delegates

June 26, 2012
Utah (primary) - 40 delegates

Total delegates = 2286, of which 1783 are bound and 503 are unbound

http://www.demconwatchblog.com/upload/2012%20RNC%20Delegate%20Summary.pdf

2012 Senate Elections

2011-12-28T10:03:00.002-05:00

Really good news today. Ben Nelson (Nebraska) is retiring. This looks to me to be a likely R pickup.

With 2010 done, it's time to turn our attention to 2012. Looks like it could be a very good year for the GOP, with lots more D seats than R seats on the line. Same as with the 2010 cycle, I will update this post periodically as additional information becomes known. I hope to build a more encyclopedic analysis of (some of) the races than I did for 2010. Looks like I might have my work cut out for me keeping this post updated; incumbents are dropping like flies.

What seats are up for election?

Democrat incumbents

1) Dianne Feinstein of California
* Took office November 10, 1992
* Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 9%
* Won in 2006 with 59% of the vote

2) Tom Carper of Delaware
* Took office January 3, 2001
* One of 17 senators to vote against repeal of Obamacare's 1099 requirement
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 12%
* Won in 2006 with 70% of the vote

3) Bill Nelson of Florida
* Took office January 3, 2001
* Voted against the 2008 bank bailout
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 36%
* Won in 2006 with 60% of the vote
* Republican primary candidates: Mike McCalister, Mike Haridopolos, Alexander George

4) Ben Cardin of Maryland
* Took office January 3, 2007 (won 54% of the vote against Michael Steele)
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 5%

5) Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
* Took office January 3, 2001
* Democrat Policy Committee Vice Chair
* Voted against the 2008 bank bailout
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 9%
* Won in 2006 with 57% of the vote
* Republican primary candidate: Chad Dewey

6) Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
* Took office January 3, 2007 (won 58% of the vote)
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 11%

7) Claire McCaskill of Missouri
* Took office January 3, 2007 (won 50% of the vote)
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 19%
* Democrat challenger: Samuel Lipari
* Republican primary candidates: Sarah Steelman, Ed Martin

8) Jon Tester of Montana
* Took office January 3, 2007 (won 49% of the vote)
* Voted against the 2008 bank bailout
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 16%
* Republican primary candidate: Denny Rehberg

9) Bob Menendez of New Jersey
* Took office January 18, 2006
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 8%
* Won in November 2006 with 53% of the vote

10) Kristen Gillibrand of New York
* Appointed to office January 26, 2009; successfully ran in 2010 to finish out the 2006-2012 term (won 63% of the vote)
* One of 17 senators to vote against repeal of Obamacare's 1099 requirement
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 10%
* Democrat challenger: Scott Noren

11) Sherrod Brown of Ohio
* Took office January 3, 2007 (won 56% of the vote)
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 8%
* Played the Hitler/Stalin card on his own state's governor

12) Bob Casey of Pennsylvania
* Took office January 3, 2007 (won 59% of the vote)
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 9%
* Republican primary candidate: Marc Scaringi

13) Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
* Took office January 3, 2007 (won 53% of the vote)
* One of 17 senators to vote against repeal of Obamacare's 1099 requirement
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 3% (second lowest in the Senate)

14) Bernie Sanders of Vermont
* Took office January 3, 2007 (won 65% of the vote)
* One of 17 senators to vote against repeal of Obamacare's 1099 requirement
* Voted against the 2008 bank bailout
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 7%

15) Maria Cantwell of Washington
* Took office January 3, 2001
* Voted against the 2008 bank bailout
* One of two Democrats to vote against financial "reform"
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 10%
* Won in 2006 with 57% of the vote

16) Joe Manchin of West Virginia
* Took office November 15, 2010, to finish out the 2006-2012 term (won 54% of the vote)

Open Democrat seats

1) Connecticut (Joe Lieberman retiring)
* Democrat primary candidates: Susan Bysiewicz, Rep. Chris Murphy

2) Hawaii (Daniel Akaka retiring)

3) Nebraska (Ben Nelson retiring)
* Republican primary candidates: Pat Flynn, Jon Bruning

4) New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman retiring)
* Republican primary candidates: Bill English, Greg Sowards
* Democrat primary candidate: Hector Balderas

5) North Dakota (Kent Conrad retiring)
* Republican primary candidate: Brian Kalk

6) Virginia (Jim Webb retiring)
*Republican primary candidates: Former Senator George Allen (who lost to Webb in 2006 by a margin of 0.6%), Jamie Radtke (head of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots)

7) Wisconsin (Herb Kohl retiring)
* Democrat primary candidate: Ben Masel
* Republican primary candidate: Tommy Thompson

Republican incumbents

1) Richard Lugar of Indiana
* Tied for longest service GOP senator; took office January 3, 1977
* Republican Ranking Memberon the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 77%
* Oldest GOP Senator, will be 80 on election day 2012
* One of five Republicans to vote for confirming Kagan to SCOTUS
* One of eight Republicans to vote against a ban on earmarks
* Won in 2006 with 87% of the vote
* Republican challenger: Richard Mourdock

2) Olympia Snowe of Maine
* Took office January 3, 1995
* Republican Ranking Member on the Senate Small Business Committee
* One of five Republicans to vote for confirming Kagan to SCOTUS
* One of three Republicans to vote for financial "reform"
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 48%
* Won in 2006 with 74% of the vote
* Republican challengers: Scott D'Amboise, Andrew Ian Dodge

3) Scott Brown of Massachusetts
* Took office February 4, 2010, to finish out the 2006-2012 term (won 52% of the vote)
* One of three Republicans to vote for financial "reform"
* Democrat primary candidate: Bob Massie

4) Roger Wicker of Mississippi
* Took office December 31, 2007 (won 55% of the vote)
* Voted against the 2008 bank bailout
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 91%

5) Dean Heller of Nevada
* Appointed May 9, 2011

6) Bob Corker of Tennessee
* Took office January 3, 2007 (won 51% of the vote)
* Republican Ranking Member on the Senate Committee on Aging
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 83%
* Featured in 1/17/2011 Weekly Standard article "Knowledge is Power"

7) Orrin Hatch of Utah
* Tied for longest service GOP senator; took office January 3, 1977
* Republican Ranking Member on the Senate Finance Committee
* Will be 78 on election day 2012
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 89%
* Won in 2006 with 62% of the vote

8) John Barrasso of Wyoming
* Took office June 22, 2007 (won 73% of the vote)
* Republican Ranking Member on the Senate Indian Affairs Committee
* Senate Republican Conference Vice Chair
* Voted against the 2008 bank bailout
* ACU Lifetime Conservative Rating = 99% (highest in the Senate)

Open Republican seats

1) Arizona (Jon Kyl retiring)
* Republican primary candidate: Rep. Jeff Flake

2) Texas (Kay Bailey Hutchison retiring)
* Republican primary candidates: Michael Williams, Roger Williams, Elizabeth Ames Jones, Glenn Addison, Andrew Castanuela, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Ted Cruz
* Democrat primary candidate: John Sharp

What Democrat seats might be in actual play?

Some pollsters are already rating seats as safe D/R, likely D/R, leans D/R or tossup. For now, I will limit myself to looking at high-level vulnerability of D seats.

Very Vulnerable:
* Tester (MT) - First term senator who won in a landslide D year with only a plurality of the vote in an at best slightly purple state. Smart money has to be against him in what will be a lot less favorable conditions in 2012.
* NE and ND - mostly red states without incumbent Ds running are most definitely at risk
* VA - held by a retiring first term D senator who won his seat with only a plurality and had a lifetime ACU rating of 15% in a swing state in which the GOP won the governor's mansion by 18 points

Fairly Vulnerable:
* McCaskill (MO) - First term senator who won in a landslide D year with only a plurality of the vote in an at best slightly purple state. Moving to the center to position herself better for 2012.
* Klobuchar (MN), Brown (OH), Casey (PA) - Relatively unknown first term senators with uber-liberal voting records in swing states are seldom safe.
* NM - not a solid blue state; without an incumbent D running it is probably at risk

Potentially Vulnerable:
* Cantwell (WA) - If Rossi came within 5 points of Murray, I have to think he has some sort of shot.
* Nelson (FL) - Perhaps LeMieux will challenge him.
* WI - If Finegold fell, this seat has to be in play, especially if Thompson runs.

Probably Safe:
* Gillibrand (NY) and Manchin (WV), unfortunately, are probably safe after winning their respective 2010 special elections in blue states.
* Carper (DE) - Perhaps Castle could mount a credible challenge, but Delaware seems likely to stay blue for the time being.
* Stabenow (MI) - I'd like to think Michigan is in play, but I don't know any specific GOP candidates.
* Menendez (NJ) - Before last year I would have said safe, but Christie has set quite the precedent.
* CT and HI - Open seats are always at risk, but these are reliably blue states.

Safe:
* Cardin (MD), Whitehouse (RI) and Sanders (VT) were all elected in 2006 but all are very safe blue seats.
* Feinstein (CA) - long-serving senator in a very blue state.

What Went Wrong?

2011-12-23T09:47:00.002-05:00

(Compliments of the Cato Institute.)

You can see that the above chart has two well defined parts. First, poverty rates dropped sharply from 40% around the start of the 20th century all the way to around 13%. Then thee graph goes flat with only very up-and-down fluctuations and ends the 20th century right around 13%, where it remains today (actually, it's 14.3% today, but let's not quibble). So what was that inflection point? 1965. Perhaps something important happened that year? Oh, that's right ... that's the year we decided to fight a war on poverty. Clearly, we lost.

It's often said that unemployment is higher than it would otherwise be because we pay people not to work through unemployment insurance. Well, likewise, the poverty rate is otherwise higher than it would otherwise be because in 1965 we started paying people to be poor. Can you imagine how much lower the poverty rate would be if we'd instead continued the trend that had obtained through the previous six decades. This is no longer an issue of budgets or economics. It's a human tragedy of epic proportions. One seldom sees a more obvious demonstration of the power of bad liberal ideas and misguided socialist policies to cause real devastation to millions of lives.

It's Official

2011-12-21T22:17:00.000-05:00

As of today,
US Debt = $15,182,800,000,000
US GDP = $15,180,900,000,000

US Debt to GDP = 100.01%.
We have joined a very exclusive club.

Second of many

2011-12-20T17:53:00.002-05:00

Sequel to a post made almost exactly one year ago.

Retired police and firefighters from Central Falls RI have agreed to sharp pension cuts, a step thought to be unprecedented in municipal bankruptcy and one that could prompt similar attempts by other distressed governments. If approved by the bankruptcy court, the agreement could be groundbreaking, said Matthew J. McGowan, the lawyer representing the retirees. “This is the first time there’s been an agreement of the police and firefighters of any city or town to take the cut,” he said, referring to those already retired, who are typically spared when union contracts change. “I’ve told these guys they’re like the canary in the coal mine. I know that there are other places watching this.” [...] Central Falls had little choice. For years, its government failed to contribute enough to its police and firefighters’ pension fund, and the fund effectively ran out of money this fall. The city, which had also promised the retirees comprehensive health benefits, could not cover the pension and health payments out of its general revenue.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/20/business/pension-deal-in-rhode-island-could-set-a-trend.html
(Thanks to MPC for the link.)

BIH Kim Jong Il

2011-12-18T23:16:00.001-05:00

North Korean leader reported dead. It will be interesting to see what happens next.

Insider Trading by Congresscritters

2011-12-03T11:31:00.001-05:00

Sen. Joe Lieberman, I- Conn., chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Reform Committee, set the goal of Dec. 15 for a committee markup, or drafting session, on a bill to prohibit members of Congress and staffers from using knowledge gained from their jobs to trade in securities or to tip off others.

[...]

The House Financial Services Committee has set a hearing for next Tuesday on a parallel bill to outlaw congressional insider trading.

I have to confess my ignorance, but when I saw this headline my first thought was "you mean it isn't already illegal?"

Fed, central banks slash dollar borrowing costs

2011-11-30T09:50:00.000-05:00

Global central banks announced coordinated action this morning to shore up liquidity in the financial system as Europe’s banking system showed growing signs of stress. The moves were announced in statements issued simultaneously by the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank. “The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity,” the banks said. The central banks agreed to lower the pricing on existing temporary US dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points.

Translation: We are making moves to save Europe.

Alternate translation: Europe and the US are using the game book created by Japan in 1990.

Let me show you my big surprise face

2011-11-22T22:20:00.000-05:00

Deficit "Super Committee" Misses Deadline

I'm shocked!

EU detemines that water doesn't protect against dehydration.

2011-11-18T09:26:00.002-05:00

Oh Europe, stay crazy! From express.co.uk:

In a scarcely believable ruling, a panel of experts threw out a claim that regular water consumption is the best way to rehydrate the body.

The bizarre diktat from Brussels has far-reaching implications for member states, including Britain, as no water sold in the EU can now claim to protect against dehydration.

Any producer breaching the order, signed by European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, faces being jailed for up to two years.

Words fail me...

In breaking news, the EU has just determined that night is day, water is dry, war is peace, freedom is slavery, and ignorance is strength

Wall Street at #OWS

2011-11-17T11:59:00.001-05:00

From The Gateway Pundit:

Colorado Tax Hike Proposition goes down in flames

2011-11-10T10:27:00.000-05:00

It looks like the "temporary" tax hikes in Colorado Proposition 103 went down in flames by nearly a 2 to 1 margin. Score one for the good guys!

11/10 ALD ETA: The Tax Foundation's Tax Policy Podcast (not to be confused with the uber-liberal Tax Policy Center) dedicated today's episode to Prop 103.

Jefferson County, Alabama, is bankrupt

2011-11-09T18:25:00.000-05:00

The Jefferson County Commission voted 4-1 to file an estimated $4 billion bankruptcy, the largest municipal bankruptcy in US history.

Ohio Voters Defeat Law Limiting Power of Unions

2011-11-09T11:50:00.000-05:00

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/11/08/ohio-voters-reject-republican-backed-union-limits/

You win some, you lose some. Ohio residents willl be sorry for this vote in the not-too-distant future.

More #Occupy News

2011-11-08T14:39:00.002-05:00

Occupiers incite Violence in Portland over, get this, breadsticks!
An eatery near Zuccotti Park is vandalized, employees are threatened by OWS protestors.
OWS erects "woman only" tent to protect women from rape and assualt by other OWSers.
San Diego street cart vendors assaulted by/with protestor's blood and urine.

Some #Occupy news

2011-11-08T12:30:00.003-05:00

Forgot to post this yesterday; my bad!

A lice outbreak was announced at the Occupy Portland squatters camp this weekend. Head AND Body lice. Must resist urge to make a dirty hippie joke...
A NY Post reporter spends a night at the Zuccotti Park commune and reports on what a wonderful, safe, uptoian society it has become. Not!
The Occupy Boston commune appears to have its own crack delivery service and now appears to function as a halfway house for ex-cons.

Forget Greece. Italy is the problem.

2011-11-08T11:49:00.001-05:00

With the focus on Greece, people are forgetting that the economy of Italy ($2.055T) is almost as big as Spain ($1.410T), Greece ($305B), Portugal ($229B) and Ireland ($204B) combined.

Read this now!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/italy-is-bust-its-just-a-question-of-when-2011-11-08

Cliff Notes version (please don't rely on this; read the whole thing):
1. Government debt has been stable since Italy joined the euro, but overall debt (govt + corp + pers) has gone up from 252% of GDP to 310%.
2. Italy has been through four recessions since it joined the euro. Average growth has been just 0.6% from 2000 to 2010 (that's aggregate, not an annual rate). Per capita GDP growth has been zero.
3. Italy has the worst demographics in the world. The UN projects that the population will fall to 41 million by 2050 from its current 51 million.

OWS fires a shot at my employer

2011-11-08T10:44:00.003-05:00

Occupy Towers Watson
Haven’t heard of Towers Watson? That’s fine with them, because Towers Watson doesn’t need your business. The company is the biggest player in the elite market of compensation consultants, who are hired by other firms’ compensation committees to help set executive pay.

Obama: "Soak the Poor"

2011-11-08T09:38:00.000-05:00

New data reveals more of the grim verdict on the $26 billion federal program to offer tax credits to home buyers. You may remember that between the spring of 2009 and September 2010 the government handed out credits of up to $8,000 to induce people to buy a new home. It was supposed to gee up the housing market. How’d that work out?

Zillow says the average price of an American home fell again last month to $171,500, down 4.4% from a year ago, although it’s been about stable over the summer. Now compare the average prices with those that people paid in 2009 and 2010, when they took advantage of the credits. According to Zillow, prices during that time averaged about $186,000. In other words, based at least on average prices, you’ve lost about $14,500. Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist, says the credits effectively expired in June 2010, when prices nationwide averaged $182,000. Since then we’re down $10,500.

The biggest losers? Step forward all those who took up Uncle Sam’s $8,000 bribe and rushed out to buy a new home in Santa Barbara, Calif. You have already lost $50,000 of your $440,000 investment. And that’s even counting the $8,000 bribe!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-great-26-billion-real-estate-swindle-2011-11-08

When will liberal feel-gooders (I refuse to call them do-gooders) realize that if market participants don't want to do something with their own money, it's probably a terrible idea to induce them to do it with somebody else's money. The article (of course, being from MarketWatch) fails to point out the biggest losers of all - the American taxpayers.

You have to really hand it to the media

2011-11-07T23:21:00.000-05:00

Fact: In 2009, there were 46 million poor people, a rate of 15.3%.
Fact: In 2010, there were 49 million poor people, a rate of 16%.
Headline: Government aid helps to trim poverty rate

I swear I am not making this up:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/government-aid-helps-to-trim-poverty-rate-2011-11-07

They are basing the entire story -- in direct and absolute contradiction to all the facts appearing in said story -- on that unprovable (and unDISprovable) theory that without government aid it "would have been worse." Well, I will counter with the "elves would have come down on unicorns and solved everything" theory. So there!

And liberals still dispute the claim that the MSM is biased? Seriously?

Freddie Mac Loses $4.4B in Third Quarter, Requests $6B More From Treasury

2011-11-03T15:24:00.000-04:00

Taxpayers have already spent about $169 billion to rescue Fannie and Freddie.

The government estimates it could cost up to $51 billion more to support the companies through 2014 (and you know that number is way understated because wasn't nobody talking about no $175 billion back in September 2008).

It is time to pull the plug on these two leeches. But the housing market ... But the economy ... But ... But ... But. At this point I'm willing to take my chances. Whatever terrible things are going to happen, I doubt it can be worse than watching $175 billion vanish like a fart in the wind.

Some #Occupy News

2011-11-03T10:49:00.000-04:00

Rioting in Oakland.

A protest that shut down the Port of Oakland to show the broadening reach of the Occupy Wall Street movement ended in violence when police in riot gear arrested dozens of protesters overnight who broke into a vacant building, shattered downtown windows, sprayed graffiti and set blazes along the way.

Must be those damned Tea Partiers causing riots again.... er, what?

His comments came before a group of demonstrators moved to break into the Travelers Aid building in order to, as some shouting protesters put it, "reclaim the building for the people."

Ahh yes, the good ole "Re-appropriating others property in the name of 'the people'" trick. Chavez, Castro, (insert your favorite socialist here) would be proud.

Eurocrats are terrified of democracy

2011-11-03T10:12:00.000-04:00

Great article from Daniel Hannan at the Telegraph:

I wish I could convey the sheer horror that his proposal provoked in Brussels. The first rule of the Eurocracy is “no referendums”. Brussels functionaries believe that their work is too important to be subject to the prejudices of hoi polloi (for once, the Greek phrase seems apposite). Referendums are always seen as irresponsible; but, at a time when the euro is teetering on the brink, Papandreou’s proposal was seen as an act of ingratitude bordering on treason.

Across the palaces and chanceries of the continent, Euro-elites closed ranks. Nicolas Sarkozy’s spokesman described Papandreou’s announcement as “irrational and dangerous”, Angela Merkel’s called it “irritating”, Silvio Berlusconi’s “negative”. Such phrases, in the mouths of government officials, suggest purple, choking rage.

Lawmakers plan to propose financial-transaction tax

2011-11-02T21:09:00.001-04:00

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) and Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR) plan to introduce legislation to impose a tax on financial transactions. The bill would put the US in the middle of an international debate over financial-transaction taxes, which have also been proposed in Europe. "It's a significant way to raise some needed revenue," Harkin said. "Quite frankly, I bet nobody would even feel it." (Source: Bloomberg)

Yeah, right!

Everybody talking about China becoming the world's largest economy...

2011-11-02T21:07:00.001-04:00

...needs to drink a tall glass of STFU.

Chinese companies run out of cash and stop paying workers
China's blue-collar workers are being hit hard as the government moves to tighten lending, leaving companies without cash to pay salaries. Construction of railway lines is near a standstill, and many of the 6 million project workers say they haven't been paid for weeks. (Source: The Economist)

A cooling in China’s economic growth rate appears inevitable, with the debate now shifting to the scale of the slowdown ahead. Japanese investment bank Nomura said they were growing more concerned about China, saying they saw a 1 in 3 chance that its gross domestic product growth will drop to a sub-5% “hard landing.” (Source: MarketWatch) And remember that, unlike the US where 3% growth is normal, sub-5% growth in China would be a complete economic calamity.

Corzine Bankrupts Another Entity

2011-10-31T15:12:00.001-04:00

A little more than four years ago, MF Global raised $3 billion in an IPO. The firm, which struggled with its alternative management structure and then ultimately failed as an investment bank, filed for Chapter 11 today. In the end, not even the pedigree of former Goldman Sachs chief Jon Corzine could save the firm from its bad bets in European sovereign debt.

I don't understand the last sentence. They say "even the pedigree of Corzine" as if this pedigree reflected any kind of success in the past. Leaving aside his disastrous tenure as governor of New Jersey, we are talking about the Jon Corzine who...

...was co-head of fixed-income investments at Goldman Sachs in 1994, the year the firm's total pretax income fell by more than 80% as the company lost money on wrong-way interest rate bets -- that is, not just at his division, but the whole firm; his division single-handedly wiped out almost all all the income that all the other divisions put together earned.

... was co-CEO in 1998 and pushed traders to keep risky positions after Russia announced a devaluation of the ruble and defaulted on some of its foreign debt, resulting in almost $1 billion in trading losses in the second half of that year

Wtf kind of "pedigree" is that?

Greece: 50% Haircut

2011-10-27T16:42:00.000-04:00

European leaders announced a deal in which private investors in Greek government debt will take a 50% writedown on the value of their holdings as part of a wide-ranging package of measures designed to stem the euro-zone debt crisis. The haircut is expected to be finalized by the start of 2012. (Source: MarketWatch)

Some #Occupy news

2011-10-27T10:44:00.001-04:00

-The Occupy Wall Street volunteer kitchen staff are angry about working 18-hour days to provide food for “professional homeless” people.

-New York's Zuccotti Park has become such a peaceful and clean place.. just kidding! Residents and businesses are demanding something be done to prevent the hundreds of protesters from urinating in the street and making noise at all hours.

-Meanwhile, across the pond, thermal images prove that 90% of tents in the Occupy camp in London are left empty overnight.

-First Oakland then Atlanta. Could Los Angeles be the next city that will clear out its occupy squatters?

-From the " I should have thought of that!" files: A New York state couple have filed to trademark the phrase "Occupy Wall Street" with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

Rasmussen: HRHBHO's Strongly Approve Ratings at 18%

2011-10-25T12:03:00.000-04:00

From Rasmussen Reports

#occupyjupiter

2011-10-25T10:54:00.000-04:00

A program so socialist even Obama and Sebelius don't like it

2011-10-24T15:33:00.001-04:00

The Department of Health and Human Services told Congress that the Community Living Assistance Services and Supports (CLASS) Act isn't viable. The plan, championed by the late Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., was tacked on to President Barack Obama's contentious health care reform bill. The program is now as dead as Sen. Kennedy.

Occupy Wall Street has its own 1%

2011-10-24T09:37:00.000-04:00

Occupy Wall Street’s Finance Committee has nearly $500,000 in the bank, and donations continue to pour in -- but its reluctance to share the wealth with other protesters is fraying tempers.

I guess it's not all rainbows and unicorns in OWS-world anymore.

SO many questions...

I wonder in what bank they keep their money?

I wonder if any of them are learning that "fixing things" is harder than they had heretofore supposed?

I wonder if they see the irony in the fact that they aren't even capable of maintaining a community on a small scale but they think they are qualified to reform the entire country?

I wonder if they like the real-world lesson in socialism? (It's The People's money? Right! Who decides how it's spent? Not you!)

Rebutting AlGore (yet again)

2011-10-19T11:30:00.001-04:00

Anthony Watts from "Watts Up With That?" has a rather thorough dunking of Al Gore’s Climate 101 Climate Reality Project that shows that his “high school physics” could never work. Bill Nye is implicated as a scientific fraud.

Are you Smarter than a Wall Street Occupier?

2011-10-19T10:15:00.000-04:00

From New York Magazine: Take the quiz, marvel at the (un)expected results

The Media's Guide to Protestors

2011-10-15T19:51:00.002-04:00

Unanswerable Physics Question of the Day

2011-10-15T12:27:00.001-04:00

How can somebody smart enough to get a PhD in theoretical high-energy physics from Harvard be dumb enough to think Howard Dean was a good candidate for president?

Down with evil corporations

2011-10-10T09:51:00.002-04:00

We do not need to be doing this to ourselves...

2011-10-08T16:50:00.000-04:00

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney finds his religion under attack again in the 2012 GOP race, with a senior Baptist pastor — and Rick Perry supporter — calling Mormonism a 'cult' in remarks to reporters at the Values Voters Summit.

Seriously?

If we can take a break from politics for one post

2011-10-05T21:06:00.001-04:00

Steve Jobs, 1955-2011

The reason the computer on which I'm typing this post is so advanced is because of the technological revolution he started.

The reason my smartphone plays chess better than I do (an admittedly low bar) is because of his vision. And I'm not talking about iPhone 2007. I'm talking Newton 1987, a decade before the Palm. The world just wasn't ready yet.

He changed the music industry (iTunes) and the movie industry (Pixar). He CREATED the tablet industry with the iPad.

And aside from his vision, you have to admire him as a brilliant executive as well. Just look at Apple's rise (1976-1985), fall to near bankruptcy (1986-1996, without Jobs) and pheonix-like revival to become the second most valuable company in the world (1997-2010). How many people in this world have ever built from scratch not one, but TWO, multi-billion dollar companies?

And now for some comedy...

2011-10-04T12:21:00.000-04:00

If you're looking for some comedy and yet another in a long list of reasons why the Wall Street protestors are a joke, check out OccupyWallStreet's hilarious "list of demands"!

For those unable to read the writing on the wall...

2011-10-04T10:37:00.000-04:00

The scariest thing occupying Wall Street is not a bunch of communist freaks badly in need of a bath; it's the big bear rampaging through folks' retirement accounts. The S&P500 is now down 20% from its recent peak, the traditional definition of a down market. What now, Obama?

Eight Ways to Keep People Out of Work

2011-10-03T16:57:00.000-04:00

Pay people not to work.
Import cheap foreign labor to replace American workers.
Increase the minimum wage to above market levels.
Encourage labor unions to use their power to demand higher than market wages and benefits.
Extract capital from the productive private sector by raising taxes and redistribute it to finance inefficient government programs.
Pursue a protectionist agenda of raising tariffs on imports to the U.S. in order to insure that other countries retaliate against American exports.
Continue to promulgate job-killing regulations.
Continue to follow the example of Greece toward economic ruin.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/10/03/eight-ways-to-keep-people-out-work/#ixzz1ZkprMbBA

Carter II

2011-09-30T14:48:00.000-04:00

July 15, 1979 - That was the date of Carter's famous "malaise" speech

September 30, 2011 - “This is a great, great country that had gotten a little soft and we didnʼt have that same competitive edge that we needed over the last couple of decades." - HRHBHO

1) Of course, it's not the fault of his idiotic policies, it's that we've gotten a little soft.
2) He does have something of a point ... what's made us soft is the welfare state that has turned us collectively into a bunch of whiny bed-wetting pansies who want the government to take care of us instead of being responsible for ourselves.
3) Last couple of decades? Perhaps just the last 2 years, 8 months, 10 days.

Anwar al-Awlaki is dead

2011-09-30T12:46:00.000-04:00

It's a good thing this didn't happen three years ago. It would have been yet another war crime by that scourge on humanity that was George W Bush. But now that we have a Peace Nobelist in the White House, this is just a-ok. Given that he was a US citizen, I am somewhat concerned about a summary execution, but I'm sure we won't hear boo out of the usual commie idiots and fellow travelers. I'm particularly if anarcho-tyrant Lawrence O'Donnell will have conniptions over it. Somehow, I doubt it.

I'd like to be able to say that even a broken clock is right twice a day...

2011-09-29T21:25:00.002-04:00

"And we are supposed to believe this is better than a private, free-market system?" -- Lawrence O'Donnell, The Last Word, MSNBC

But, of course, he's not talking about health care or education. What is he talking about? He's talking about the police, whom he accuses of brutality in arresting some of the freaks protesting on Wall Street.

And I'm particularly disgusted at the Ludwig von Mieses Institute for featuring his absurdly biased and histrionic piece on their webpage. I work hard to prevent my family from being exposed to anarcho-tyrranical garbage like O'Donnell.

This is quite literally the stupidest thing I have ever heard a reporter say

2011-09-29T20:52:00.002-04:00

Update by UnknownVariable: Well that didnt take long! CTV appears to have had the Bridget Brown Gold video taken down! I am sure that this will end well for them and in no way cause this to spread virally.

Nice car company you've got here...

2011-09-28T12:02:00.000-04:00

It would be a shame if something were to happen to it.

As part of a campaign featuring “real people” explaining their decision to buy the Blue Oval, a guy named “Chris” says he “wasn’t going to buy another car that was bailed out by our government,” according the text of the ad, launched in early September. “I was going to buy from a manufacturer that’s standing on their own: win, lose, or draw. That’s what America is about is taking the chance to succeed and understanding when you fail that you gotta’ pick yourself up and go back to work.” That’s what some of America is about, evidently. Because Ford pulled the ad after individuals inside the White House questioned whether the copy was publicly denigrating the controversial bailout policy CEO Alan Mulally repeatedly supported in the dark days of late 2008, in early ‘09 and again when the ad flap arose.

Another blow against free speech from Don Barack "Corleone" Obama. What I want to know is where is the outrage from all the Bush-bashing "civil liberties" idiots?

Herman Cain Wins Florida GOP Straw Poll

2011-09-24T21:40:00.000-04:00

1 Herman Cain 37.1%
2 Rick Perry 15.4%
3 Mitt Romney 14.0%
4 Rick Santorum 10.9%
5 Ron Paul 10.4%
6 Newt Gingrich 8.4%
7 Jon Huntsman 2.3%
8 Michele Bachman 1.5%

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203890804576591531691468092.html

The water is rising... NFIP is about to expire.

2011-09-23T12:38:00.001-04:00

I really don't know why this isn't being talked about by the MSM and many blogs on both sides of the aisle, but there is a problem on the near horizon that, in my opinion, would be way worse than the recently threatened government shutdowns.

The National Flood Insurance Program expires at the end of the month. The NFIP insures over five and a half million homes.

If the NFIP expires, millions of people will be forced to find flood insurance elsewhere. The problem is that there is absolutely no viable market for this coverage. If you have a home mortgage or home equity line, odds are your creditors require that you maintain flood insurance if you live in an areas designated as a flood zone by the NFIP. The only real source for flood insurance is the NFIP.

So what happens in the event insurance cannot be obtained through the NFIP? You creditor may force place flood coverage through excess and surplus insurance markets. E & S insurance almost always costs significantly more than standard/admitted coverage. E & S companies may not have the same financial strength as standard/admitted companies and may not be able to pay claims in the event of a major flooding event.

There are several problems with the NFIP, its rates (not actuarially sound) and how FEMA is funded in general, but there is now nearly no time left to resolve them.

IMO, this is a scenario in which we must punt the ball to gain more time. A short term spending bill drawn up and passed by House Republicans would provide a two month extension to the NFIP. The Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2011 has yet to be passed in the Senate.

The bill has passed the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs by unanimous consent. Unfortunately the funding is currently being blocked by Harry Reid and the Senate Democrats.

I really don't see why this isn't getting more media play. A lot of people will soon be paying a lot more for flood insurance.

Market Fubar, Part ∞: What's going on here?

2011-09-22T12:42:00.001-04:00

As of this writing, the Dow is down 400 (edit: now 500 (edit: now 350)) points and the commodities markets are taking a severe beating. What's going on here?

This Just In from Webster!

2011-09-20T12:41:00.000-04:00

Wealthy (adjective) = earning a high income in Mississippi

[Senator] Schumer said the $250,000 limit is unacceptable since it will hit the [NYC] metropolitan area disproportionately because of the high cost of living here. “$250,000 makes you really rich in Mississippi but it doesn’t make you rich at all in New York and there ought to be some kind of scale based on the cost of living on how much you pay."

The freshest idea in blue states soaking the red states. Here's an idea, Sen. Schumer, if your constituents in NYC don't like the cost of living there, they can ... BLOODY WELL MOVE. Don't ask me to subsidize their hipster doofus life style.

Feinstein in political trouble?

2011-09-16T09:50:00.002-04:00

From the L.A. Times:

A new Field Poll just released this morning brings news that California's Sen. Dianne Feinstein is -- how can we put this in a liberal kind of way? -- approved by 41% of voters who want to see her reelected next year.Unfortunately for her, more voters (fully 44%) disapprove of her continued employment in the U.S. Senate after 2012.

Unemployment = Unemployment + 11K; inflation marches on.

2011-09-15T09:47:00.002-04:00

The predictability of these reports is becoming laughable. MSNBC:

The weekly jobless claims number, which is closely watched as an indicator for employment trends, unexpectedly rose 11,000 to 428,000, well ahead of estimates of 411,000.

There's that unexpected word again. It has come to a point where I have come to expect unexpected to continually appear in these types of reports.

The consumer price index, meanwhile, gained 0.4 percent when including volatile food and energy prices, after an increase of 0.5 percent in July.

"Ruh-roh!"

For the 12 months ending in August, the core index surged 2 percent, the biggest year-over-year increase in nearly three years.

"Mr. President, I have President Carter holding for you on line 2."

Amuzing #attackwatch tweets

2011-09-14T15:32:00.001-04:00

From the #attackwatch hashtag, here are some tweets that I found particularly amuzing

Hey #attackwatch, I saw 6 ATM's in an alley, killing a Job. It looked like a hate crime!

Paging #attackwatch! Do something about these "hostage takers" in the Senate not supporting Obama jobs plan! Oh, and they're Democrats.

@AttackWatch I tried to find some red/black themed posters for you, but only ones I found are in German and have a funny symbol #attackwatch

2008: Bush is destroying our civil liberties! 2011: REPORT SUSPICIOUS OPINIONS TO THE STATE, CITIZEN #AttackWatch

Drawing a blank here.... What do you call a leader who encourages people to inform on neighbors, co-workers... Don't tell me... #attackwatch

Contagion

2011-09-14T09:29:00.003-04:00

I've previously written in this blog about the concept of phase transitions in physics and how the same concept can be applied to financial markets and economies. Water goes from 98 degrees C to 99 degrees C and it's still water, but when it goes grom 99 C to 100 C you get steam. Likewise, there are events in financial markets (such as the October 1987 crash) and economies (Fall 2008) that exhibit discontinuous changes of a similar nature.

The collapse of the euro may be one such event. It's starting to occur to folks that lending Greece new money so they can pay back their old debt while Greece is still spending more than it takes in does precisely nothing to solve the problem. Downgrades are starting to spread from the sovereign governments that issue the debt to the banks that hold the debt, as well they should. People forget that the Bear Stearns crisis started with a small hedge fund in June 2007. Less than 9 months later Bear Stears was dead, and less than 6 months after that the entire US financial system was on life support. I believe we are seeing the initial stages of just such a phase transition with regards to Greek debt. Moody’s had said in June that it was considering downgrading France’s top three listed banks because of their exposure to Greek debt. Today, Moody’s cut its long-term debt and deposit rating on SocGen by one notch to Aa3 from Aa2 and said the outlook for the rating is negative. Credit Agricole was downgraded one notch to Aa2 from Aa1; the rating company said the bank has “considerable capital resources to absorb potential losses,” but the overall exposures were too large to be consistent with the previous rating. Moody's is still reviewing BNP Paribas.

MarketWatch has this to say: Financial markets indicate Greece’s chaotic sovereign-debt saga is moving inevitably toward default, economists said, leaving European leaders and policy makers scrambling to avert a potentially disastrous domino effect that could wreck the euro and send the global economy into a tailspin. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou are slated to hold a conference call late Wednesday afternoon as Greece finds itself under pressure to implement further austerity measures in an effort to meet its deficit targets. But many economists fear policy makers have failed to grasp the imminent likelihood of a Greek default and the damage it could do. “The risk of a banking crisis is very real. I don’t think policy makers have the luxury of time in getting ahead of this,” said Neil Mackinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital in London. A default by Greece appears likely in a matter of days or weeks, he said.

Edited to add one piece of market data: Insuring $10 million of Greek debt for five years using credit default swaps costs $5.75 million up front and $100,000 per year. (No there are no typos in that sentence.)

Is It Still Good to be the King? (Tony Blankley)

2011-09-14T09:17:00.000-04:00

A very interesting piece on the very foundation of the electoral process in the Western democracies.

For the last 65 years, the world economic order has been vastly favorable to the middle-class citizens and voters in the West with their incomes going steadily up or at least flattening at a predictable and comfortable material level. Moreover, the middle-class fears of economic hardship were virtually eliminated by the existence of the welfare safety net. Thus, while incumbent governments eventually get defeated due to scandals or simply having worn out their welcome, general public satisfaction with their economic condition has benefited existing governments that as matter of course are seen to be delivering such prosperity. As a result, in the US - with the exception of Jimmy Carter - neither the Democratic nor Republican parties have held the White House for less than eight years in a row since World War II (in fact since Grover Cleveland left the presidency in 1896). Similarly in Britain, the Conservative and the Labor Parties have traded periods of rule of 13, 15, 18 and 13 years' duration (again, with one short exception) since World War II. Germany, likewise, has traded long durations between their Christian Democratic and Social Democratic parties of 22, eight and 16 years. Chancellor Angela Merkel is currently in her seventh year. France also gave its Gaullist Party 23 straight years of rule followed by giving the Socialist Party 14 continuous years of rule.

But if my theory is right, the electoral ground is shifting under the feet of elected leaders in the United States, France, Germany, Britain, Spain, Portugal, Finland, Holland and most of the rest of the democratic world. In virtually all the democratic countries, the current elected leaders are at 40% or below in job approval. Sixty-eight percent of French voters want to replace Nicolas Sarkozy. The Italian government coalition under Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi suffered a crushing defeat in local elections a few months ago. British Prime Minster David Cameron has climbed back up to a mere 40% approval level. This anti-incumbent bias against Western democratic governments will grow and persist until the correlation of world economic forces are seen to once again be favorable, or at least satisfactory, to the Western middle class. This is a mighty challenge.

The whole article is at Rasmussen, definitely worth a careful read. As Blankely points out, if this trend bears out it will probably have profound policy implications.

GOP +1

2011-09-14T07:21:00.003-04:00

Voters in New York's 9th Congressional District chose novice politician Republican Bob Turner (a well-known television executive) to replace disgraced Democrat Anthony Weiner. With more than 90% of precincts reporting, Turner had 53%. Democrat Dave Weprin, a state assemblyman, had 46%. Weprin did not immediately concede. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 3 to 1 in the district, which has not been represented by the GOP since 1923. "It's a very difficult district for Democrats," - DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Yeah, there seems to be a lot of those these days. Thanks, Obama!

In other news from Nevada's 2nd Congressional District, Mark Amodei (former Republican state senator and former state GOP chairman) bested Democrat Kate Marshall to win the special election to fill the seat vacated when Republican Rep. Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate to replace John Ensign.

Two Different Attacks on Obama's "Jobs" Plan

2011-09-13T21:34:00.000-04:00

The Economic Case Against It (Larry Kudlow):
Who really expected an unbelievably large $450 billion plan? That’s way more than 50% of the original $800 stimulus package in 2009 - which did not work. Leaked reports leading up to the speech suggested a $300 billion plan - already way too big. But $450 billion? At a time of massive deficits and debt? And a downgrade? How is this going to be paid for? That’s what many folks want to know. Obama didn’t tell us. In very round numbers, the package comes to $250 billion of temporary payroll tax cuts of one kind or another, with another $200 billion in new spending on infrastructure, unemployment benefits, and direct aid to state and local governments. But didn’t we learn from Obama Stimulus One that more government spending doesn’t grow the economy or reduce unemployment? And while more than half of the president’s new package is called “tax cuts,” the reality is that these are temporary tax cuts.

The Social Case Against It (James Bovard):
Obama proposed new federal jobs and job-training programs for youth and the long-term unemployed. The federal government has experimented with these programs for almost a half century. The record is one of failure and scandal. [...] Obama also wants a new federal initiative to be based on Georgia Work$, which the president describes as a program in which "people who collect unemployment insurance participate in temporary work as a way to build their skills while they look for a permanent job." But Georgia Work$ has produced far more headlines than jobs—fewer than 200 this year. Manpower Development and Training Act (1962), Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (1973), Job Training Partnership Act (1982), Workforce Investment Act (1998)... Enough is enough!

Well, this is change...

2011-09-13T11:58:00.002-04:00

The 46.2 million Americans below the poverty line is the highest number in the 52 years for which the Census Bureau has reported data. The poverty rate climbed to 15.1%, up from 14.3% in 2009 and the highest since 1983. [Source: US Census]

Conclusions:
1. Obama sux!
2. The war on poverty is over. We lost!

I had to edit this post, to point out how the AP reported on this story, "The U.S. poverty rate from 2007-2010 has now risen faster than any three-year period since the early 1980s, when a crippling energy crisis amid government cutbacks contributed to inflation, spiraling interest rates and unemployment."

1) Government cutbacks? What government cutbacks? WTF are they talking about?
2) Inflation and spiraling interest rates in the early 1980s? Not the late 1970s? You sure about that?
Bastards!

The Obama Presidency by the Numbers (Michael Boskin, WSJ)

2011-09-09T23:34:00.000-04:00

The failed stimulus bill cost an astounding $280,000 per job—over five times median pay—by the administration's inflated estimates of jobs "created or saved," and much more using more realistic estimates.

Cash for clunkers cost $3 billion, just to shift car sales forward a few months.

The Public-Private Investment Partnership, despite cheap federal loans, generated 3% of the $1 trillion claimed.

Federal spending at 25% of GDP is the highest in US history except for World War II

Federal deficit at 10% of GDP is the highest in US history except for World War II.

Federal debt at 67% of GDP is the highest since just after World War II.

The fraction of the population working (58.1%) is the lowest since 1983.

Long-term unemployment is by far the highest since the Great Depression.

Job growth during the first two years of recovery after a severe recession is the slowest in postwar history.

The home-ownership rate of 59.7% is the lowest since 1965 and foreclosures are at a post-Depression high.

The share of Americans paying income taxes (49%) is the lowest in the modern era.

Dependency on government (47%) is the highest in US history.

Obama's Speech: Condensed Edition

2011-09-09T14:47:00.001-04:00

"Congress, you must pass my 300 billion.., er, 447 billion new jobs plan immediately! Do it now! Unfortunately, at this time, I cannot give you details of the plan, how many jobs it will create or how we are going to pay for it. I'll have my people get that to you in a week or so. Vote for my new jobs bill now!"

http://www.270towin.com/

2011-09-08T14:18:00.000-04:00

Here's how I see the 2012 electoral math.
Start with Obama's victory in 2008: 365-173

Adjust for the 6 electoral vote swing: 359-179

North Carolina, Indiana and Nebraska's 2nd district have vanished like a fart in the wind from Obama's column and they ain't coming back: 332-206. As of 6/24/11, both NC and IN are polling as strongly leaning Republican.

Right now I don't see how Obama could win Florida, Ohio or Virginia (of course, this could change, but that's how I see it as of today): 272-266. As of 6/24/11, FL, OH and VA are all polling as leaning Republican.

That's all I have. So, I have to say that right now Obama is still the slight favorite to be reelected. But can he really hold on to EVERYTHING else? If he screws up even one more thing, he's toast!

Recent polling shows Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire as toss-ups. To win, the GOP candidate needs to pick up one of these three. Obama will have to sweep all three.

To make things worse for Obama, Kate Havard points out that he holds only the narrowest of leads in Nevada and New Mexico.

http://www.270towin.com/

(Edited 6/24/11 to add some recent poll results.)
(Bumped 9/8/11 with TWS article link.)

No new jobs; Obama halts job killing EPA plan

2011-09-02T16:13:00.003-04:00

From the AP:

Obama overruled the Environmental Protection Agency — and the unanimous opinion of its independent panel of scientific advisers — and directed administrator Lisa Jackson to withdraw the proposed regulation to reduce concentrations of ground-level ozone, smog's main ingredient. The decision rests in part on reducing regulatory burdens and uncertainty for businesses at a time of rampant uncertainty about an unsteady economy.

The announcement came shortly after a new government report on private sector employment showed that businesses essentially added no new jobs last month — and that the jobless rate remained stuck at a historically high 9.1 percent.

This is bad, really bad

2011-09-01T16:03:00.000-04:00

Our Ambassador In Syria Attacked By Thugs

Pro-regime thugs in Syria harassed and set upon the U.S. ambassador just over a week ago. The event was not publicly reported in Washington until Tuesday, when a journalist discovered a propaganda video exploiting the attack. The episode reveals an American diplomat with more fortitude and canny than his boss in the White House. (Christian Whiton, Fox News)

Did you know...

2011-08-26T09:58:00.003-04:00

...that King Harald of Norway, King Cark Gustav of Sweden, Queen Margrethe of Denmark and Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands are all in the line of succession for the British throne?

So is the former King Constantine of Greece (and his wife, who is actually higher in the list).

There's also a plethora of heirs to thrones that no longer exist -- Prince Peter of Yugoslavia, Grand Duchess Maria Romanova of Russia, Prince Georg Friedrich Hohenzollern of Prussia.

And although excluded from the line of succession (because they're Catholic), also distantly related to Queen Elizabeth II are King Juan Carlos of Spain (and his wife), King Albert of Belgium and Grand Duke Henri of Luxembourg. And a couple of former reigning monarchs among this group too -- Michael of Romania and Simeon of Bulgaria.

There's also an assortment of almost every old house of Europe -- Leiningen (in Alsace-Lorraine and the Palatinate, titled since before 1138), Courland (in Latvia, titled since 1561), Hohenlohe-Langenburg (in Baden-Württemberg, titled since 1610), Savoy (titled since 1003), Mecklenburg-Schwerin (titled since 1348), Löwenstein-Wertheim-Rosenberg (titled since 1494), Sayn-Wittgenstein-Berleburg (titled since 1607), Saxe-Coburg & Gotha, Schleswig-Holstein, Hanover, Hesse, Baden and a host of others. And throughout the list there are Habsburgs too numerous to mention.

Finally, the list even contains two different claimants to the throne of France: Louis Alphonse de Bourbon (who like Juan Carlos de Borbon of Spain traces his noble lineage back to the fourth century!) and Charles Napoleon.

No wonder Europe is stagnant! Almost all the wealth of an entire continent is in the hands of fewer than 5000 people, in the same families who have held it for centuries upon centuries, in some cases back to before there are even written records about it.

More "revisions"

2011-08-26T09:23:00.000-04:00

GDP rose at a 1.0% annual rate in the second quarter, down from the 1.3% initially reported.

Funny how these revisions NEVER go in the other direction.

Germany is reaching rescue exhaustion, Wulff says

2011-08-25T14:08:00.000-04:00

German President Christian Wulff warned that the European economic engine has had about enough of rescuing other nations. He also said the European Central Bank violated its treaty mandate by intervening in the bond market. "I regard the huge buy-up of bonds of individual states by the ECB as legally and politically questionable. Article 123 of the treaty on the EU's workings prohibits the ECB from directly purchasing debt instruments, in order to safeguard the central bank's independence." (The Telegraph, CNBC/Reuters)

64% of my fellow Americans don't understand capitalism

2011-08-25T10:12:00.000-04:00

A new Rasmussen Reports finds that just 26% of American Adults say the primary objective of a business should be to create value for the shareholders. Sixty-four percent (64%) believe the primary purpose should be to create jobs for the overall economy, while 10% are not sure.

I weep for my country.

What today's BAC headline actually means...

2011-08-25T10:06:00.002-04:00

Goldman bailout part 2 is here. And so the Octogenarian of Omaha doubles down on another taxpayer bailout. At least we can put aside all the lies that Bank of America did not need capital. It needed capital: $5 billion of it. It also confirmed it was completely locked out of both debt and equity public capital markets - the bank's only recourse was a private raise with a crony capitalist who is once again doubling down on the global ponzi. (Source: ZeroHedge)

I did not think it could go this low

2011-08-23T21:32:00.000-04:00

Strong Approval (19%) - matches his all-time low
Strong Disapproval (45%) exceeds Total Approval (44%) for the first time

New Low

2011-08-22T10:51:00.000-04:00

Strongly Approve 20%
Strongly Disapprove 44%
Total Approve 44%
Total Disapprove 55%

Teaching Company's Great Debate Course

2011-08-20T12:15:00.002-04:00

http://www.thegreatcourses.com/tgc/courses/course_detail.aspx?cid=4878

This course presents the debate on the adoption of the constituition that is seldom found in discussions of US history. It is a quite unique addition to the TTC repertoire and is a topic that should be learned by more people in order to understand how our federal government came to work the way it does.

Prof. Pangle's selections from both the Federalist Papers and Anti-Federalist Papers was quite educational. He explains the positions of both sides and carefully points out where the objections and predictions of the Anti-Federalists (the state militias would be absorbed by the federal army, the general welfare and necessary & proper clauses would be interpreted expansively, the federal government would eventually tax income) were downright prescient.

This course is a must for anybody interested in US history or politics. It is also one of the few TTC courses that I intend to listen to again in the near future, as I'm sure I will learn more and be forced to think about other ideas that I overlooked on the first listen.

My highest recommendation.

Note: Right now, it's at its regular price ($90). Wait until it goes on sale (under $20).

Crony Capitalism at Work

2011-08-19T15:50:00.000-04:00

The largest transfer of wealth from the public to private sector is about to begin. The federal government will be bulk-selling the massive portfolio of foreclosed homes now owned by HUD, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to private investors.

I don't know who the losers are, but the winner is always Goldman Sachs. History will record this period of US economic history as an EPIC FAIL.

Rasmussen Reports: Obama Approval Index at -23

2011-08-16T13:22:00.006-04:00

From Rasmussen Reports:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 19% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -23

(ALD) It's worth noting that both the 19% and -23 tie the record lows set on 4/11/11 and 9/5/10, respectively. Also, his STRONG disapproval is only 1 percentage point lower than his TOTAL approval.

Party like it's 1980

2011-08-12T11:57:00.000-04:00

Consumer sentiment has tumbled to 54.9 in August — its lowest level since May 1980 — from 63.7 in July.

Pelosi's picks complete the debt committee

2011-08-11T20:16:00.002-04:00

House Dems - James Clyburn, Xavier Becerra, Chris Van Hollen
House Reps - Jeb Hensarling, Dave Camp, Fred Upton
Senate Dems - Patty Murray, Max Baucus, John Kerry
Senate Reps - Jon Kyl, Pat Toomey, Rob Portman

Upton (Lifetime ACU Rating = 73%) is the weak link here. I can easily see this committee going 7-5 for a bunch of tax hikes and defense cuts while leaving entitlements and domestic spending untouched. Yet another reason to hate Boehner. The most "moderate" member picked by the Dems is Baucus (Lifetime ACU Rating = 14%). Continuing proof that Dems win at this sort of thing because they are willing to play hardball while the GOP is playing tiddly-winks. Why isn't Ryan (chair of the House Budget Committee) included if Van Hollen (the ranking Dem member on that committee) is?

I apologize for missing this story when it broke

2011-08-11T11:26:00.000-04:00

I was just reading an article about the debt deal that referred to Austan Goolsbee as the outgoing chair of Obama's council of economic advisers. Sure enough he resigned back on June 6th. That means he lasted less than 9 months on the job. It also means that Obama has gone through two CEA chairs in 29 months. Most ominous of all, no word yet on a replacement even though it's been over two months.

Bert & Ernie are not gay!

2011-08-11T11:08:00.001-04:00

That is all.

Market Fubar, part Duex: The roller coster continues.

2011-08-10T13:50:00.003-04:00

As of this writing, the market is getting hammered losing another 250 points (it's actually rallying right now). In related news, gold has jumped yet another ~4% and is currently trading at $1780.

With the US debt downgrade, PIIGS, and now rumors of French banking problems and a possible debt downgrade has got me thinking about fiat currency. It is apparent that many of the world's asset managers are fleeing those systems in favor of commodity money. They aren't just fleeing into gold. Look are various commodity prices. Most of the world's major commodities have skyrocketed over the last year. It's not just gold. Silver has jumped 112% in the last 12 months. Wool 94%, Sugar 66%, Fuel (in general) 43%. Nearly every commodity, except Oranges (damn you Randolph and Mortimer!), has had significant gains in the last year.

So what does this all mean?

Are the commodity markets forming a bubble due to all the wealth that appears to be pouring in from other markets? With the rise of commodity prices and the US printing money like it's going out of style, if/when will inflation skyrocket?